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CBB: North Carolina at Duke
2010-03-08
The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Durham on Saturday night for another installment of college basketball’s greatest rivalry, as Duke hosts North Carolina.
The Duke Blue Devils won the earlier meeting in Chapel Hill, somewhat comfortably, but could be hard pressed to beat a pointspread that more accurately reflects UNC’s struggles this time around. However, this could be one of those games where oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com over-adjust for the rivalry aspect while ignoring the obvious signs.
Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The UNC Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season.
North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.
It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival.
This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.
This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997. The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 16.
NCAAB: Kansas at Missouri
2010-03-08
The Kansas Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost their unbeaten
regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State last Saturday and have one more treacherous stop left.
Kansas’ most immediate goal is to secure a #1 seed for the Big Dance, and a loss against the Missouri Tigers on Saturday could derail that goal.
Get the latest line for this game on the
LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.
Kansas played outstanding, crushing Kansas State by 17 points last week and have one last conference clash as they travel to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS).
Kansas coach Bill Self has seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13
ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.
Missouri is in the Big Dance and an upset could improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with a 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges.
Missouri guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and is 8-2
ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.
Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2
ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.
The StatFox Power Line shows pick em’ but this is what Steve Makinen had to say about this affair: For having just 27 total samples since ’97, I figure this particular FoxSheet system should be in play for at least three of four games this week alone: Play Against - Home
teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSOURI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games. (23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*). Think about why this is successful. If a team is that good, playing at home, and the line is not more than 3-points, you have to assume the visiting opponent is a better club. That is the case here. The Jayhawks spanked the Tigers by 19 points in January and already suffered their learning loss last Saturday. HC Bill Self won’t be fooled two straight weeks.
Play: Kansas
CBB: Michigan at Michigan State (4:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05
Michigan State is one of three
teams with four losses in Big Ten play. That is the total that is going to grab at least a share of the conference
regular season title. Of course, that means for in order to the Spartans to be in on the sharing, they need to simply beat rival Michigan at home on Sunday afternoon. After nearly being upset Thursday night by Penn State, perhaps that goal is easier said than done for State. Oddsmakers figure the Spartans will get it done, but its up to bettors at Sportsbook.com to decide whether or not they will do it by enough points to satisfy all their backers.
The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany
Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11
ATS as a home favorite.
Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1
ATS as an away underdog.
Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with a 5-5
ATS record. The StatFox Power Line shows Michigan State by 9.
CBB: Florida at Kentucky (12:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05
Remember a few years ago when Billy Donovan’s Florida team was the most dominant program in the country, having just wrapped up its second of back-to-back national titles? Well, the Gators haven’t even sniffed the tournament since and may find themselves on the outside looking in once again this March, unless they can do something like pull off an upset at Kentucky on Sunday afternoon. Read on for a preview of this key SEC contest then head over to the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com for all the key
betting info on this last day of the college basketball regular season.
The Gators conclude the season with a matchup with their biggest rival: Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2
ATS as away underdogs this season.
This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0
ATS vs. poor three-point shooting
teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.
Kentucky has won nine of the last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1
ATS mark.
The StatFox Power Line shows Kentucky by 11.
CBB: North Carolina at Duke (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-03-05
The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Durham on Saturday night for another installment of college basketball’s greatest rivalry, as Duke hosts North Carolina. The Blue Devils won the earlier meeting in Chapel Hill, somewhat comfortably, but could be hard pressed to beat a pointspread that more accurately reflects UNC’s struggles this time around. However, this could be one of those games where oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com over-adjust for the rivalry aspect while ignoring the obvious signs.
Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the
regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9
ATS facing
teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.
It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC
regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5
ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.
This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10
ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997. The StatFox Power Line shows Duke by 16.
CBB: Tennessee at Mississippi State (6:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-03-05
It shows how much the talking heads of ESPN and the rest of the bracketology world think of the SEC when a team like Mississippi State, at 21-9 on the season, still has work to do to escape from the proverbial bubble. That work might include just one small task though…beat Tennessee at home on Saturday evening. It should be a nip & tuck contest so be sure to follow the line moves all day long at Sportsbook.com then pounce when the moment is right.
The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them their best chance for an invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5
ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.
Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in the first league tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.
The underdog has been the correct side in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The StatFox Power Line shows Mississippi State by 1, while the Outplay Factor Line indicates Bulldogs by 3.
CBB: Syracuse at Louisville (2:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-03-05
Syracuse has wrapped up the
regular season Big East title, and with that comes the #1 seed in next week’s league tournament. Of course, the Orange are thinking even further ahead than that, hoping for an overall #1 seed in the Big Dance. A loss at Louisville on Saturday would not help that cause. On the other bench, Louisville should be in the tourney itself, but an upset of the nation’s top ranked team would cement it. Can the
Cardinals pull it off? Most bettors at Sportsbook.com don’t figure to go that way, but you still can.
The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut ,11 years ago, and that team went on to win a national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 SU and 10-1
ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0
ATS having won four of five games this season.
It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in the next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the
Cardinals are 14-4, with a rueful 4-9
ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.
Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1
ATS the last three years. Still, the StatFox Power Line shows Syracuse by 4