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NCAAB: Final Four Notes & Quotes (6:05 PM ET, CBS)
2008-04-04
By now you’ve had time to fully digest a week’s worth of information regarding the Final Four teams in preparation for Saturday’s games. However, perhaps you don’t know that 70% of bettors are favoring Memphis and 79% back North Carolina. Here are some more tidbits to chew on.
With a full week to accumulate enough knowledge about the four teams in the Final Four, that anyone could start there own Wikipedia page, the idea became to keep it simple for those still looking to place a wager on two of the three remaining college basketball games. We’ll stick to the college basketball betting facts, and have our experts share there opinions on each semifinal contest.
With this being the first ever Final Four to have all four seeded number one’s advance, it is easy to surmise the favorites are ruling again this year. Thus far in the tournament, chalk bettors are dealing out the punishment for the second year in a row with 39-21 against the spread record, good for +15.9 units of profit on straight bets. The top seeded teams are a combined 11-5 ATS in the tournament, with North Carolina perfect 4-0 ATS and collectively they have played Over the total 10 of 16 games.
UCLA had a scare against Texas A&M in the second round and survived 53-49 as 9.5-point favorites. They have gone on to win next two games by 10 and 19 points. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts.
North Carolina has been listed anywhere from 2-1 to 8-5 to win the whole tournament for the second time in four years. To date they have not really had a scare and teams that have won and covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round.
Big 12 teams like Kansas are not in an enviable position when the tourney reaches this point, showing just a 5-9 SU and ATS record in the last two decades.
This Memphis team would be a power in any conference they would have played in this season. About the last thing these Tigers are is a Cinderella story, yet it is worth mentioning, teams outside the Power Six conferences are 3-8 and 4-7 ATS when they make to this juncture.
For those that want to ride the favorites until the tournament comes to a conclusion, this might be a sound strategy, since they are 17-7 and 16-8 ATS since 2000, including 8-2 SU and ATS the last five years.
While many bettors shy away from Totals, it might be a wise idea to consider this on Saturday. North Carolina and Kansas are two high scoring teams and Bookmaker.com has them posted at 159 for there matchup. Of the last 37 times the total has been over 150, the UNDER has been the correct play 24 times, for 64.8 win percentage.
Here is what the StatFox experts see occurring on Saturday.
Semifinal #1: MEMPHIS (-2) vs. UCLA Total-134.5
StatFox Steve says: Although the pointspread is closer for the Memphis-UCLA game than it is for the Kansas-North Carolina contest, the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings suggest it should be the opposite. In fact, Memphis holds a 4-point edge in that category. In point differential for the season, Memphis is +18.7, UCLA is +15.3. The bottom line that these numbers are showing is that the Tigers are the more dominant team. Execution-wise I would give UCLA the edge in this duel, but in shear talent, power, and athleticism, what Memphis showed last weekend has to give them the overall edge. Strangely, even in an area where UCLA is very well respected, defensively, HC John Calipari’s team boasts much stronger statistics. As long as the free throw shooting doesn’t go completely belly up in the game, I don’t see any reason Memphis should not win this game and cover the minute pointspread. Play: Memphis -1
StatFox Doug says: UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. Tigers by 8.
Semifinal #2: KANSAS vs. N CAROLINA (-3) Total-159
StatFox Steve says: I’m not as sold on the side on this game as I am on the other one. As dominant as North Carolina has been in the tournament thus far, I am leery on laying the points in a game where the StatFox Forecaster actually gives Kansas the straight up edge. I truly believe this game could go either way. However, I do like one side of the total, and that is the UNDER. Kansas has been phenomenal defensively in March, holding seven of 10 teams to 61 points or less. Plus, history has shown that the rest will give Bill Self a chance to plot for the Tar Heels offensive explosiveness: Self is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest as the coach of KANSAS. The average score was KANSAS 73.8, OPPONENT 57.6 - (Rating = 3*). He’s holding these foes to under 58 PPG. Furthermore, if you consider the brisk pace at which the UNC-Louisville game was played, with each team shooting better than 50% from the floor, that contest produced only 156 points. I don’t see both the clubs shooting that well here. Play the UNDER 158.5.
StatFox Doug says: Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
If you want to place one absolutely GUARANTEED wager, do so for the Championship game on Monday. Number one seeds are 5-0 against the spread.
NCAAB: Ohio State favored to win NIT
2008-04-02
Ohio State has become accustomed to losing National Championship games in the last year, be it football or basketball. The Buckeyes, a 2-1/2 point favorite on the Live Odds page, have a chance to end the streak on Thursday night when they take aim at UMass in the NIT title game.
Be honest, when you filled out your NIT brackets, you didn’t have Ohio State vs Massachusetts. (Like anybody fills out that bracket) In fact, perusing the various sites giving out handicappers picks, nobody in the one’s viewed had the Buckeyes and best guess fewer than one in three picked the Minutemen. Yet despite the best efforts of these folks, Ohio State and UMass will attempt to bring home NIT trophy.
Massachusetts was set to experience the fate most expected, trailing Florida 36-27 at the half as four point underdogs. The Minutemen returned for the second half as Supermen and chomped up the Gators but good, in outscoring 51-30. What turned UMass around were its three fifth-year seniors, who decided they were not done yet. Dante Milligan and Gary Forbes in particular, combined to score 36 points leading the team by example. "The reason I thought we'd have a chance in this game was if our seniors showed some leadership," coach Travis Ford said. "These guys just have that never-die attitude."
They will have one last fling to show there mettle against Ohio State. Massachusetts is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.
The Buckeyes, behind the leadership of senior Jamar Butler, was able to do what Mississippi was not, overcome stage fright. The Rebels made mistake after mistake and could throw the ball into the New York harbor. "I just experienced a coach's worst nightmare, to come on a big stage and start the game the way we did," Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. "The hole we dug was insurmountable."
Ohio State cruised home to win by 12 after building up 44-20 halftime lead. Most pundits figured the Buckeyes couldn’t handle the moment against the more experienced Rebels, however Butler and Evan Turner scored 17 each and David Lighty and Kosta Koufas added 16 points a piece for the Buckeyes in a very balanced attack.
Ohio State can end the season with a win, unlike last year in losing in NCAA title game to Florida. Sportsbook.com has the Buckeyes as 2.5-point favorites with total of 149. The Scarlet and Gray are 15-6 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons and are 6-2 ATS after allowing 25 or fewer points in first half of last game.
No matter how Thad Matta’s team starts, the coach will have to sell his team on the fact this will require 40 minutes of continuous effort, since UMass have already shown incredible resiliency in coming back from second-half deficits of 12 against Akron, 22 against Syracuse and nine against the Gators just to reach the NIT championship. Despite the slow starts, Massachusetts has played good basketball in the traditional sense and is 6-2 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.
Whatever team gains control of the tempo, will determine the outcome of the Total. UMass is 6-1 UNDER in last seven games, while the Buckeyes are 13-3 OVER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
This NIT Championship is on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern, with Ohio State 5-1 ATS when the total is in 140-149.5 range and the Minutemen 8-4 as underdogs.
StatFox Power Line – Ohio State by 1
NCAAB: NIT Semi–Finals (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2008-04-01
It wasn’t the kind of Final Four Florida coach Billy Donovan was looking for, however now that his Gators squad has made it this far, why not take home another trophy for the third year in a row. They’ll play UMass tonight at 7:00 PM ET in the first of two NIT Semifinals.
As of mid-morning Tuesday, over 90% of the early betting action was siding with the Gators as a 4-1/2 point favorite. That line started at minus-3, so oddsmakers have adjusted to the one-sided action. Follow the Betting Trends page throughout the day to see if the adjustment made was enough to even the score. In the other contest, Ohio State, a 2-1/2 point favorite against Ole Miss, was getting over 70% of the attention from bettors.
Coach Donovan booted his young team out of locker room, after losing fourth consecutive game and SEC tourney opener to Alabama 80-69. He had a perfect understanding of his team and the situation, and the baby Gators have responded with three wins by average of 21.6 points per game, shooting 54 percent and outrebounding opponents by more than 10 per games in this tournament.
"We're still playing for a championship. It's maybe not the championship that we wanted to play for, but we can still bring a banner back." Freshman Chandler Parsons said in the Gainesville Sun, on the Gators' advance to the NIT semifinals. Florida is now 13-2 ATS in a post-season tournament game over the last three seasons and takes on a Massachusetts team trying to earn its own respect.
"(The Florida Gators) are a team that is playing with a great sense urgency," Ford said after a team practice on March 28. "You can see the difference in them. Very talented basketball team. Very very talented basketball team. Very similar to the one we just played as far as very good young talent, probably even more talent than Syracuse." UMass victory was stirring over the Orangemen, coming back from 19-point deficit at halftime. "I told our guys at halftime I wasn't really happy," Ford said. "I told them, 'Get your heads up. We're lucky we're only down 19.' That was the worst half of basketball we've played all year. But being down 19 wasn't a problem. The way we play, 19 points wasn't a problem."
A less than focused effort could spell doom for the Minutemen, who are 7-1 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season. Despite averaging more points per game then Florida (81.5 vs 77.9) UMass has to play slower and be in control of tempo.
Sportsbook.com has Florida as four point favorites in first semi-final game, with the Gators 14-5 ATS in road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Massachusetts is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site underdog.
In the nightcap, it’s the SEC against the Big Ten. Mississippi was the upset road winner at Virginia Tech, coming away with a victory 81-72 at Blacksburg as 7.5-point underdogs. The Rebels have won six of seven (5-2 ATS) and tickling the twine with great regularity, making over 50 percent of their shots in this time frame. The defense has also been sharp except for two non-covers and they are 16-5 ATS off a road win.
Ohio State was able to benefit from three NIT games in Columbus to advance to New York. This still an accomplishment for team returning just one starter in Jamar Butler, from a squad that played in national championship game last season. Butler is also playmaker and best outside scoring threat for often inconsistent offensive team. The Buckeyes are just 5-10 away from home, though they did mange to cover eight times. Having shot 50 percent or better in each NIT contest, the Scarlet and Gray are 10-1 ATS after two straight outings where they made half or more of shot attempts over the last two seasons.
The Buckeyes are two point favorites and will take on Ole Miss club that is 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
The doubleheader action commences at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.
StatFox Power Line – Florida by 3, Ohio State by 2
NCAAB: Top Elite 8 Historical Trends
2008-03-28
When the action resumes on Saturday and Sunday in the NCAA Tournament, trips to the Final Four will be on the line. As the tourney gets deeper, it becomes all the more important to do your research before getting the money down.
Sportsbook.com will be your home on Saturday and Sunday for everything you need to make this Elite 8 weekend a success. Lines, Totals, and Props for every game, In-depth Matchup Reports for all four contests, Real Time Betting Trends, it’s all just a small part of what Sportsbook has on tap for you. Be sure to visit March Madness Central for the latest.
The Elite 8 action has been money for underdogs. In fact, worse seeds have held a large advantage in this round since 1998, going 26 & 12 ATS for 68.4 percent. Those playing as underdogs of less than 7-points are a startling 12 & 7 straight up & 15 & 4 ATS. Don’t make the mistake of assuming the #1’s will win if they make it this far. In any case, it should be a fabulous weekend of college hoops wagering. Don’t miss a single money-making opportunity along the way. For now, here are some more trends from past Elite 8 action:
The average margin of victory in the Elite 8 round is 8.98 PPG, surprisingly high considering the quality of both teams that typically reach this point. In addition, the Elite 8 round has also produced some higher scoring games, with the total average points per game of 149.2 being the highest on any round, with 23 of the 35 totaled games going OVER. Here are some other quick tidbits:
- 28 of the 40 games in the round have involved #1 seeds. They are just 15-13 SU and 9-17-2 ATS (34.6%).
- The #3 seeds own a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS mark when matched against #1’s but just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS otherwise.
- #5 and #8 seeds have combined for a 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS record in Elite 8 action. In all but one of those games they were the underdog.
- The only one of the eight favorites of more than 8.5-points to lose straight up was Arizona in ’98, who lost to Utah by 25 points!
- The ACC & Big Ten have made the most of their Elite 8 opportunities. The ACC is 9-2 SU & 5-5-1 ATS, while the Big Ten is 9-4 SU & 8-4-1 ATS since ’98. On the opposite end, the Atlantic 10 is still looking for its first win against five defeats.
- Worse seeds have held a large advantage in this round since 1998, going 26-12-2 ATS (68.4%). Those playing as underdogs of less than 7-points are a startling 12-7 SU & 15-4 ATS (78.9%)!
- Concerning totals, in games with posted numbers of 145 or less, the OVER has been spectacular, going 18-6-1, a conversion rate of 75.0%. It obvious that teams have to score to advance past this round.
- For those looking for a nice parlay in the Elite Eight round, take note that in the 10 games that the favorite has covered in this round, the OVER is 10-1-1 (90.9%).
NCAAB: Charity Stripe could decide South Regional
2008-03-28
The action in Friday’s South Region Sweet 16 games features Memphis taking on Michigan State, plus Stanford battling Texas. Only one of these four teams will advance to San Antonio next weekend. Over 80%% of bettors are convinced Texas will be one of the two clubs battling on Sunday.
Memphis coach John Calipari has used a little so-called “dollar diplomacy” talk in trying to convince those watching and wagering on Tigers games that free throws will not be an issue. Nevertheless, the smart shopper is wary of the silver-tongued Calipari, known for ability to sell flood insurance in Baja desert.
Memphis is shooting 58.5 percent from the charity stripe for the season and is off 15 for 32 effort against Mississippi State in non-cover, including lugubrious five for 12 in last 48 seconds. "We just have to be consistent," guard Chris Douglas-Roberts said. "But I feel very comfortable in my teammates at the line. We don't get nervous."
The best method to avoid an untimely defeat is to race out to big lead and hold on, which is something Memphis is certainly capable of. The Tigers actually outrebounded the bigger, stronger Bulldogs of MSU by eight, showing a front court tenacity sometimes lacking. Memphis doesn’t always crack the whip as 7-14 ATS record after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season proves, but they are 71-43 ATS versus good defensive teams like Michigan State, with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games in a season.
Calipari has joked this week about how rugged Michigan State plays and is friends with Spartans coach Tom Izzo. It’s no joke how well Michigan State is playing at the moment, with two convincing wins over Temple and Pittsburgh. What has made the Spartans better recently is other players have stepped up, especially when Raymar Morgan doesn’t play up to capabilities. Kalin Lucas and Drew Neitzel combined for 40 points against Pittsburgh and Goran Suton has shown improved post play in March. Michigan State converts 73.9 percent from the charity stripe and is 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season.
Memphis is 4.5-point favorite, with rising 136.5 point total at Sportsbook.com. With Neitzel scoring and dishing, the Spartans are dangerous, but Memphis has shown in the past they perform well against good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists, with 45-26 ATS record. Michigan State won’t rollover and is 8-2 ATS in road games versus very good clubs outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game this season.
Second-seeded Texas is a two-point favorite over number three Stanford and is erroneously being thought of having advantage of more Texans in the seats. Unquestionably, the local Houston fan base will have more Longhorn alumni and fans; however Reliant Stadium is huge facility, with potential lighting angles, poor sightlines, that both teams with have to contend with.
The most unheralded aspect of Texas is the defense, which has held opposing teams to 38.8 percent. Coach Rick Barnes has done a phenomenal job is teaching his players help defense and they are 13-5 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 or contests.
Stanford has to hope its backcourt can stay even with Longhorns back-liners and the Lopez twins can control the paint. Brook and Robin will be guarding the lane and the basket to prevent A.J. Augustin from making usual excursions into the lane. If they limit Augustin’s opportunities and dominate the Texas frontline, the Cardinal could fly to Regional Final. Stanford is 14-4 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games and 19-7 ATS in roadies after a win by six points or less.
Be alerted to the 134 total also in this conflict of Big 12 and Pac-10. Stanford is 12-4 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons and Texas is 15-5 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80 percent) in the same timeframe.
With the game predicted to be this close, the side and total will be affected by the free throw shooting. The Cardinal is 69.5 percent and the Horns are 68.2 percent, leading to possibility whoever converts more free tosses will be the winner.
StatFox Power Line- Memphis by 6, Texas by 1
NCAAB: Midwest Region Features Upstarts
2008-03-28
The second day of Sweet 16 action tips off in the Midwest Regional in Detroit, with a battle between Wisconsin and Davidson. That game will be followed up by Kansas-Villanova. Early spread bettors are embracing the favorites in these contests.
Be sure to visit the Betting Trends page before making a move on either of these games or the South Regional action, as there have been some definitive patterns that have formed in the Sweet 16 games. When ready, lock and load by clicking on the Live Odds page for the latest lines.
Maybe the city of Detroit and the automakers ought to take a look at the blueprint of success that surprise visitors Villanova and Davidson put together as #12 and #10 seeds, to advance to the Motor City for Midwest Regional. Each concocted a vehicle that sped to Detroit, having just the right amount of manpower to build such a smooth running machine and enough horse power when they stepped on the gas; they just blew away the competition.
The Davidson Wildcats have been an unknown quantity, even as they have been piling impressive win totals the last several seasons under veteran coach Bob McKillop, who is in his 19th season. Davidson this season became recognized for having one of the premier scorers in the country in Stephen Curry, winning 22 consecutive games and playing better competition in November and December and losing. The Gonzaga win in the opening round was of note, as Curry scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half. What has brought the Wildcats to the forefront was not only beating a very good and number two seed Georgetown team, but the manner in which they did so, in overcoming 16-point deficit against one of the premier defensive teams in the country. Coach McKillop will be able to show off his coaching acumen against another highly respected coach in the industry in Bo Ryan.
Ryan’s Wisconsin teams are not flashy, strictly black suits with solid color tie material.
Nonetheless, they carry out orders like CIA operatives, thoroughly, with convincing results. The Badgers allow just 55.4 points per game away from Madison and are 12-3 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. The Badgers have won a dozen straight, with ten covers. There goal will be to limit the number of touches Curry has, since he owns a hair-trigger release. Wisconsin will want to have point guard Jason Richards handle the ball more and force him to dish to frontcourt players before he gets into the paint.
Wisconsin has good size, but junior Andrew Lovedale is more athletic than the Badgers' bigs and will need to create seams for himself and stay out of foul trouble. Davidson is 17-5 ATS the road and is 4.5-point underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with 126.5 Total. The Wildcats are 15-5 ATS against teams with wining records this season. With the way Wisconsin can play defense, if they score 67 to 74 points they are 6-0 against the spread.
Approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first contest, Villanova will take on top-seeded Kansas. The Wildcats unlikely ascension actually started in the first round of the Big East tournament, when they took out Syracuse, in what was widely perceived as NCAA Tournament elimination game. Villanova overcame huge Clemson lead in the first half to come back to win and jumped on nervous Siena and coasted to victory. The Wildcats are thought to be one of those teams that should just be happy to be in Sweet 16, which is probably true. Coach Jay Wright will explain to his young team, winning is what matters and if Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher can get hot, who knows. ‘Nova is 14-1 SU if they make eight or more treys and 14-4 ATS in neutral site games as an underdog.
Kansas has played like the roles the California governor used to star in “Terminator” flicks. Since the unsightly loss to Oklahoma State on Feb. 23, the Jayhawks have reeled off nine straight wins, with 6-3 ATS record. What has made Kansas so wicked late, is the play of point guard Sherron Collins and the Brandon Rush demanding the ball and converting jumps shots all over the floor. Bill Self team has been cleaning the glass as well and is 11-2 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.
Kansas is 12-point choice, yet is only 2-7 ATS in Sweet 16 round.
StatFox Power Line- Wisconsin by 1, Kansas by 12
2008-04-04
By now you’ve had time to fully digest a week’s worth of information regarding the Final Four teams in preparation for Saturday’s games. However, perhaps you don’t know that 70% of bettors are favoring Memphis and 79% back North Carolina. Here are some more tidbits to chew on.
With a full week to accumulate enough knowledge about the four teams in the Final Four, that anyone could start there own Wikipedia page, the idea became to keep it simple for those still looking to place a wager on two of the three remaining college basketball games. We’ll stick to the college basketball betting facts, and have our experts share there opinions on each semifinal contest.
With this being the first ever Final Four to have all four seeded number one’s advance, it is easy to surmise the favorites are ruling again this year. Thus far in the tournament, chalk bettors are dealing out the punishment for the second year in a row with 39-21 against the spread record, good for +15.9 units of profit on straight bets. The top seeded teams are a combined 11-5 ATS in the tournament, with North Carolina perfect 4-0 ATS and collectively they have played Over the total 10 of 16 games.
UCLA had a scare against Texas A&M in the second round and survived 53-49 as 9.5-point favorites. They have gone on to win next two games by 10 and 19 points. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts.
North Carolina has been listed anywhere from 2-1 to 8-5 to win the whole tournament for the second time in four years. To date they have not really had a scare and teams that have won and covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round.
Big 12 teams like Kansas are not in an enviable position when the tourney reaches this point, showing just a 5-9 SU and ATS record in the last two decades.
This Memphis team would be a power in any conference they would have played in this season. About the last thing these Tigers are is a Cinderella story, yet it is worth mentioning, teams outside the Power Six conferences are 3-8 and 4-7 ATS when they make to this juncture.
For those that want to ride the favorites until the tournament comes to a conclusion, this might be a sound strategy, since they are 17-7 and 16-8 ATS since 2000, including 8-2 SU and ATS the last five years.
While many bettors shy away from Totals, it might be a wise idea to consider this on Saturday. North Carolina and Kansas are two high scoring teams and Bookmaker.com has them posted at 159 for there matchup. Of the last 37 times the total has been over 150, the UNDER has been the correct play 24 times, for 64.8 win percentage.
Here is what the StatFox experts see occurring on Saturday.
Semifinal #1: MEMPHIS (-2) vs. UCLA Total-134.5
StatFox Steve says: Although the pointspread is closer for the Memphis-UCLA game than it is for the Kansas-North Carolina contest, the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings suggest it should be the opposite. In fact, Memphis holds a 4-point edge in that category. In point differential for the season, Memphis is +18.7, UCLA is +15.3. The bottom line that these numbers are showing is that the Tigers are the more dominant team. Execution-wise I would give UCLA the edge in this duel, but in shear talent, power, and athleticism, what Memphis showed last weekend has to give them the overall edge. Strangely, even in an area where UCLA is very well respected, defensively, HC John Calipari’s team boasts much stronger statistics. As long as the free throw shooting doesn’t go completely belly up in the game, I don’t see any reason Memphis should not win this game and cover the minute pointspread. Play: Memphis -1
StatFox Doug says: UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. Tigers by 8.
Semifinal #2: KANSAS vs. N CAROLINA (-3) Total-159
StatFox Steve says: I’m not as sold on the side on this game as I am on the other one. As dominant as North Carolina has been in the tournament thus far, I am leery on laying the points in a game where the StatFox Forecaster actually gives Kansas the straight up edge. I truly believe this game could go either way. However, I do like one side of the total, and that is the UNDER. Kansas has been phenomenal defensively in March, holding seven of 10 teams to 61 points or less. Plus, history has shown that the rest will give Bill Self a chance to plot for the Tar Heels offensive explosiveness: Self is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest as the coach of KANSAS. The average score was KANSAS 73.8, OPPONENT 57.6 - (Rating = 3*). He’s holding these foes to under 58 PPG. Furthermore, if you consider the brisk pace at which the UNC-Louisville game was played, with each team shooting better than 50% from the floor, that contest produced only 156 points. I don’t see both the clubs shooting that well here. Play the UNDER 158.5.
StatFox Doug says: Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Kansas in a tight one by 2.
If you want to place one absolutely GUARANTEED wager, do so for the Championship game on Monday. Number one seeds are 5-0 against the spread.
NCAAB: Ohio State favored to win NIT
2008-04-02
Ohio State has become accustomed to losing National Championship games in the last year, be it football or basketball. The Buckeyes, a 2-1/2 point favorite on the Live Odds page, have a chance to end the streak on Thursday night when they take aim at UMass in the NIT title game.
Be honest, when you filled out your NIT brackets, you didn’t have Ohio State vs Massachusetts. (Like anybody fills out that bracket) In fact, perusing the various sites giving out handicappers picks, nobody in the one’s viewed had the Buckeyes and best guess fewer than one in three picked the Minutemen. Yet despite the best efforts of these folks, Ohio State and UMass will attempt to bring home NIT trophy.
Massachusetts was set to experience the fate most expected, trailing Florida 36-27 at the half as four point underdogs. The Minutemen returned for the second half as Supermen and chomped up the Gators but good, in outscoring 51-30. What turned UMass around were its three fifth-year seniors, who decided they were not done yet. Dante Milligan and Gary Forbes in particular, combined to score 36 points leading the team by example. "The reason I thought we'd have a chance in this game was if our seniors showed some leadership," coach Travis Ford said. "These guys just have that never-die attitude."
They will have one last fling to show there mettle against Ohio State. Massachusetts is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.
The Buckeyes, behind the leadership of senior Jamar Butler, was able to do what Mississippi was not, overcome stage fright. The Rebels made mistake after mistake and could throw the ball into the New York harbor. "I just experienced a coach's worst nightmare, to come on a big stage and start the game the way we did," Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. "The hole we dug was insurmountable."
Ohio State cruised home to win by 12 after building up 44-20 halftime lead. Most pundits figured the Buckeyes couldn’t handle the moment against the more experienced Rebels, however Butler and Evan Turner scored 17 each and David Lighty and Kosta Koufas added 16 points a piece for the Buckeyes in a very balanced attack.
Ohio State can end the season with a win, unlike last year in losing in NCAA title game to Florida. Sportsbook.com has the Buckeyes as 2.5-point favorites with total of 149. The Scarlet and Gray are 15-6 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons and are 6-2 ATS after allowing 25 or fewer points in first half of last game.
No matter how Thad Matta’s team starts, the coach will have to sell his team on the fact this will require 40 minutes of continuous effort, since UMass have already shown incredible resiliency in coming back from second-half deficits of 12 against Akron, 22 against Syracuse and nine against the Gators just to reach the NIT championship. Despite the slow starts, Massachusetts has played good basketball in the traditional sense and is 6-2 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.
Whatever team gains control of the tempo, will determine the outcome of the Total. UMass is 6-1 UNDER in last seven games, while the Buckeyes are 13-3 OVER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
This NIT Championship is on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern, with Ohio State 5-1 ATS when the total is in 140-149.5 range and the Minutemen 8-4 as underdogs.
StatFox Power Line – Ohio State by 1
NCAAB: NIT Semi–Finals (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2008-04-01
It wasn’t the kind of Final Four Florida coach Billy Donovan was looking for, however now that his Gators squad has made it this far, why not take home another trophy for the third year in a row. They’ll play UMass tonight at 7:00 PM ET in the first of two NIT Semifinals.
As of mid-morning Tuesday, over 90% of the early betting action was siding with the Gators as a 4-1/2 point favorite. That line started at minus-3, so oddsmakers have adjusted to the one-sided action. Follow the Betting Trends page throughout the day to see if the adjustment made was enough to even the score. In the other contest, Ohio State, a 2-1/2 point favorite against Ole Miss, was getting over 70% of the attention from bettors.
Coach Donovan booted his young team out of locker room, after losing fourth consecutive game and SEC tourney opener to Alabama 80-69. He had a perfect understanding of his team and the situation, and the baby Gators have responded with three wins by average of 21.6 points per game, shooting 54 percent and outrebounding opponents by more than 10 per games in this tournament.
"We're still playing for a championship. It's maybe not the championship that we wanted to play for, but we can still bring a banner back." Freshman Chandler Parsons said in the Gainesville Sun, on the Gators' advance to the NIT semifinals. Florida is now 13-2 ATS in a post-season tournament game over the last three seasons and takes on a Massachusetts team trying to earn its own respect.
"(The Florida Gators) are a team that is playing with a great sense urgency," Ford said after a team practice on March 28. "You can see the difference in them. Very talented basketball team. Very very talented basketball team. Very similar to the one we just played as far as very good young talent, probably even more talent than Syracuse." UMass victory was stirring over the Orangemen, coming back from 19-point deficit at halftime. "I told our guys at halftime I wasn't really happy," Ford said. "I told them, 'Get your heads up. We're lucky we're only down 19.' That was the worst half of basketball we've played all year. But being down 19 wasn't a problem. The way we play, 19 points wasn't a problem."
A less than focused effort could spell doom for the Minutemen, who are 7-1 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season. Despite averaging more points per game then Florida (81.5 vs 77.9) UMass has to play slower and be in control of tempo.
Sportsbook.com has Florida as four point favorites in first semi-final game, with the Gators 14-5 ATS in road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Massachusetts is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site underdog.
In the nightcap, it’s the SEC against the Big Ten. Mississippi was the upset road winner at Virginia Tech, coming away with a victory 81-72 at Blacksburg as 7.5-point underdogs. The Rebels have won six of seven (5-2 ATS) and tickling the twine with great regularity, making over 50 percent of their shots in this time frame. The defense has also been sharp except for two non-covers and they are 16-5 ATS off a road win.
Ohio State was able to benefit from three NIT games in Columbus to advance to New York. This still an accomplishment for team returning just one starter in Jamar Butler, from a squad that played in national championship game last season. Butler is also playmaker and best outside scoring threat for often inconsistent offensive team. The Buckeyes are just 5-10 away from home, though they did mange to cover eight times. Having shot 50 percent or better in each NIT contest, the Scarlet and Gray are 10-1 ATS after two straight outings where they made half or more of shot attempts over the last two seasons.
The Buckeyes are two point favorites and will take on Ole Miss club that is 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
The doubleheader action commences at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.
StatFox Power Line – Florida by 3, Ohio State by 2
NCAAB: Top Elite 8 Historical Trends
2008-03-28
When the action resumes on Saturday and Sunday in the NCAA Tournament, trips to the Final Four will be on the line. As the tourney gets deeper, it becomes all the more important to do your research before getting the money down.
Sportsbook.com will be your home on Saturday and Sunday for everything you need to make this Elite 8 weekend a success. Lines, Totals, and Props for every game, In-depth Matchup Reports for all four contests, Real Time Betting Trends, it’s all just a small part of what Sportsbook has on tap for you. Be sure to visit March Madness Central for the latest.
The Elite 8 action has been money for underdogs. In fact, worse seeds have held a large advantage in this round since 1998, going 26 & 12 ATS for 68.4 percent. Those playing as underdogs of less than 7-points are a startling 12 & 7 straight up & 15 & 4 ATS. Don’t make the mistake of assuming the #1’s will win if they make it this far. In any case, it should be a fabulous weekend of college hoops wagering. Don’t miss a single money-making opportunity along the way. For now, here are some more trends from past Elite 8 action:
The average margin of victory in the Elite 8 round is 8.98 PPG, surprisingly high considering the quality of both teams that typically reach this point. In addition, the Elite 8 round has also produced some higher scoring games, with the total average points per game of 149.2 being the highest on any round, with 23 of the 35 totaled games going OVER. Here are some other quick tidbits:
- 28 of the 40 games in the round have involved #1 seeds. They are just 15-13 SU and 9-17-2 ATS (34.6%).
- The #3 seeds own a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS mark when matched against #1’s but just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS otherwise.
- #5 and #8 seeds have combined for a 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS record in Elite 8 action. In all but one of those games they were the underdog.
- The only one of the eight favorites of more than 8.5-points to lose straight up was Arizona in ’98, who lost to Utah by 25 points!
- The ACC & Big Ten have made the most of their Elite 8 opportunities. The ACC is 9-2 SU & 5-5-1 ATS, while the Big Ten is 9-4 SU & 8-4-1 ATS since ’98. On the opposite end, the Atlantic 10 is still looking for its first win against five defeats.
- Worse seeds have held a large advantage in this round since 1998, going 26-12-2 ATS (68.4%). Those playing as underdogs of less than 7-points are a startling 12-7 SU & 15-4 ATS (78.9%)!
- Concerning totals, in games with posted numbers of 145 or less, the OVER has been spectacular, going 18-6-1, a conversion rate of 75.0%. It obvious that teams have to score to advance past this round.
- For those looking for a nice parlay in the Elite Eight round, take note that in the 10 games that the favorite has covered in this round, the OVER is 10-1-1 (90.9%).
NCAAB: Charity Stripe could decide South Regional
2008-03-28
The action in Friday’s South Region Sweet 16 games features Memphis taking on Michigan State, plus Stanford battling Texas. Only one of these four teams will advance to San Antonio next weekend. Over 80%% of bettors are convinced Texas will be one of the two clubs battling on Sunday.
Memphis coach John Calipari has used a little so-called “dollar diplomacy” talk in trying to convince those watching and wagering on Tigers games that free throws will not be an issue. Nevertheless, the smart shopper is wary of the silver-tongued Calipari, known for ability to sell flood insurance in Baja desert.
Memphis is shooting 58.5 percent from the charity stripe for the season and is off 15 for 32 effort against Mississippi State in non-cover, including lugubrious five for 12 in last 48 seconds. "We just have to be consistent," guard Chris Douglas-Roberts said. "But I feel very comfortable in my teammates at the line. We don't get nervous."
The best method to avoid an untimely defeat is to race out to big lead and hold on, which is something Memphis is certainly capable of. The Tigers actually outrebounded the bigger, stronger Bulldogs of MSU by eight, showing a front court tenacity sometimes lacking. Memphis doesn’t always crack the whip as 7-14 ATS record after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season proves, but they are 71-43 ATS versus good defensive teams like Michigan State, with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games in a season.
Calipari has joked this week about how rugged Michigan State plays and is friends with Spartans coach Tom Izzo. It’s no joke how well Michigan State is playing at the moment, with two convincing wins over Temple and Pittsburgh. What has made the Spartans better recently is other players have stepped up, especially when Raymar Morgan doesn’t play up to capabilities. Kalin Lucas and Drew Neitzel combined for 40 points against Pittsburgh and Goran Suton has shown improved post play in March. Michigan State converts 73.9 percent from the charity stripe and is 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season.
Memphis is 4.5-point favorite, with rising 136.5 point total at Sportsbook.com. With Neitzel scoring and dishing, the Spartans are dangerous, but Memphis has shown in the past they perform well against good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists, with 45-26 ATS record. Michigan State won’t rollover and is 8-2 ATS in road games versus very good clubs outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game this season.
Second-seeded Texas is a two-point favorite over number three Stanford and is erroneously being thought of having advantage of more Texans in the seats. Unquestionably, the local Houston fan base will have more Longhorn alumni and fans; however Reliant Stadium is huge facility, with potential lighting angles, poor sightlines, that both teams with have to contend with.
The most unheralded aspect of Texas is the defense, which has held opposing teams to 38.8 percent. Coach Rick Barnes has done a phenomenal job is teaching his players help defense and they are 13-5 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game after 15 or contests.
Stanford has to hope its backcourt can stay even with Longhorns back-liners and the Lopez twins can control the paint. Brook and Robin will be guarding the lane and the basket to prevent A.J. Augustin from making usual excursions into the lane. If they limit Augustin’s opportunities and dominate the Texas frontline, the Cardinal could fly to Regional Final. Stanford is 14-4 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games and 19-7 ATS in roadies after a win by six points or less.
Be alerted to the 134 total also in this conflict of Big 12 and Pac-10. Stanford is 12-4 OVER as an underdog over the last two seasons and Texas is 15-5 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80 percent) in the same timeframe.
With the game predicted to be this close, the side and total will be affected by the free throw shooting. The Cardinal is 69.5 percent and the Horns are 68.2 percent, leading to possibility whoever converts more free tosses will be the winner.
StatFox Power Line- Memphis by 6, Texas by 1
NCAAB: Midwest Region Features Upstarts
2008-03-28
The second day of Sweet 16 action tips off in the Midwest Regional in Detroit, with a battle between Wisconsin and Davidson. That game will be followed up by Kansas-Villanova. Early spread bettors are embracing the favorites in these contests.
Be sure to visit the Betting Trends page before making a move on either of these games or the South Regional action, as there have been some definitive patterns that have formed in the Sweet 16 games. When ready, lock and load by clicking on the Live Odds page for the latest lines.
Maybe the city of Detroit and the automakers ought to take a look at the blueprint of success that surprise visitors Villanova and Davidson put together as #12 and #10 seeds, to advance to the Motor City for Midwest Regional. Each concocted a vehicle that sped to Detroit, having just the right amount of manpower to build such a smooth running machine and enough horse power when they stepped on the gas; they just blew away the competition.
The Davidson Wildcats have been an unknown quantity, even as they have been piling impressive win totals the last several seasons under veteran coach Bob McKillop, who is in his 19th season. Davidson this season became recognized for having one of the premier scorers in the country in Stephen Curry, winning 22 consecutive games and playing better competition in November and December and losing. The Gonzaga win in the opening round was of note, as Curry scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half. What has brought the Wildcats to the forefront was not only beating a very good and number two seed Georgetown team, but the manner in which they did so, in overcoming 16-point deficit against one of the premier defensive teams in the country. Coach McKillop will be able to show off his coaching acumen against another highly respected coach in the industry in Bo Ryan.
Ryan’s Wisconsin teams are not flashy, strictly black suits with solid color tie material.
Nonetheless, they carry out orders like CIA operatives, thoroughly, with convincing results. The Badgers allow just 55.4 points per game away from Madison and are 12-3 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. The Badgers have won a dozen straight, with ten covers. There goal will be to limit the number of touches Curry has, since he owns a hair-trigger release. Wisconsin will want to have point guard Jason Richards handle the ball more and force him to dish to frontcourt players before he gets into the paint.
Wisconsin has good size, but junior Andrew Lovedale is more athletic than the Badgers' bigs and will need to create seams for himself and stay out of foul trouble. Davidson is 17-5 ATS the road and is 4.5-point underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with 126.5 Total. The Wildcats are 15-5 ATS against teams with wining records this season. With the way Wisconsin can play defense, if they score 67 to 74 points they are 6-0 against the spread.
Approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first contest, Villanova will take on top-seeded Kansas. The Wildcats unlikely ascension actually started in the first round of the Big East tournament, when they took out Syracuse, in what was widely perceived as NCAA Tournament elimination game. Villanova overcame huge Clemson lead in the first half to come back to win and jumped on nervous Siena and coasted to victory. The Wildcats are thought to be one of those teams that should just be happy to be in Sweet 16, which is probably true. Coach Jay Wright will explain to his young team, winning is what matters and if Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher can get hot, who knows. ‘Nova is 14-1 SU if they make eight or more treys and 14-4 ATS in neutral site games as an underdog.
Kansas has played like the roles the California governor used to star in “Terminator” flicks. Since the unsightly loss to Oklahoma State on Feb. 23, the Jayhawks have reeled off nine straight wins, with 6-3 ATS record. What has made Kansas so wicked late, is the play of point guard Sherron Collins and the Brandon Rush demanding the ball and converting jumps shots all over the floor. Bill Self team has been cleaning the glass as well and is 11-2 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.
Kansas is 12-point choice, yet is only 2-7 ATS in Sweet 16 round.
StatFox Power Line- Wisconsin by 1, Kansas by 12