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UCLA BRUINS (3-2, 3-1 ATS) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (6-0, 3-1 ATS) Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series
2010-12-02
Sportsbook.com using Kansas -16.5
Two legendary programs, one dynamic college basketball setting, history, tradition. That is about all that undefeated Kansas (6-0) and UCLA (3-2) will have in common when they take the court Thursday night in Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks bring a nation-best, 64-game home winning streak into play, and the Bruins will be about as welcome in Lawrence as LeBron James will be welcome Thursday night in Cleveland.
Kansas has been clicking on all cylinders, and they have yet to add top recruit Josh Selby to the rotation. The NCAA ruled recently that Selby can play beginning on December 18. So far without Selby, Kansas is shooting a Division I best 57.8% from the field. Their average margin of victory (35.3 PPG) is also tops in the nation. As a team, they are averaging 22 assists per game. The Morris brothers have been outstanding so far. Marcus Morris leads the team in scoring at 19 PPG, while brother Markieff is averaging 12.3 PPG and a team-high 9.5 RPG. Tyshawn Taylor has been stellar so far at the point, averaging a team high 7.2 APG to complement his 9.2 PPG.
After a 3-0 start, Ben Howland’s Bruins lost in the semifinals and then the consolation game of the Preseason NIT Championship in Madison Square Garden. Sophomore forward Reeves Nelson leads the Bruins in points and rebounds (17.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG), and totaled 30 points and 23 rebounds in the two losses in New York City. Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt (14.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) are both sophomores, and headline a young Bruins club that does not have a single senior on the team. The poise and discipline of this UCLA team will be sorely tested on Kansas’ home floor. The Bruins have totaled 84 assists and 81 turnovers this season. The combination of a young team that doesn’t protect the basketball, playing in a hostile road environment against an experienced team that has won 64 straight on its home floor and loves to pressure the ball looks like a bad combination for the baby bears. Normally when Kansas and UCLA play, that smell in the air is tradition. Thursday night in Lawrence, that won’t be tradition you’re whiffing, but more like the smell of a young team getting smoked.
69% of action at Sportsbook.com is betting that the Jayhawks will cover the big spread against the Bruins.
KANSAS is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS 80.3, OPPONENT 63.6 - (Rating = 3*).
Elite 8 Matchup Preview: Butler Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
2010-03-30
(7) BYU Cougars vs. (2) Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5)
2010-03-20
CBB: Early Dog Hunting
2010-03-12
A handful of games had early lines for Friday, with the matchups already predetermined. Here is a look at the chances of those dogs that were assigned early numbers, attempting to figure out if they can cover or win outright. Get the latest odds on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
St. Bonaventure’s needs your prayers
The Bonnies won their opening A-10 tourney game 83-71 over DuQuesne as a one-point favorite. After torching the nets early in the season, conference play slowed down St. Bonaventure’s. However, recently the team has regained their shooting eye, converting on 49.2 percent or more in their last four outings. The Bonnies are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS in last six contests; unfortunately they will be up against Temple defense that allows 56.8 points per game and 38.1 percent.
The Owls have won seven straight and nine or 10, with only loss at highly respected Richmond. Temple has won and covered last nine meetings by an average of 19.2 per game. Sportsbook.com has the Owls sitting as 10-point favorites and they are 6-0 ATS as neutral site favorites for this high noon start.
Underdog Cover Chance – Slim
Contrast in style
St. Louis is the higher seed at four; nevertheless, they are the underdog to Rhode Island by three-points. Oddmakers tip their hat to coach Rick Majerus, but are not convinced the Billikens 8-2 SU and ATS close to the season is for real. Ignorance is bliss for St. Louis, since they perfectly suited for this moment, having only been favored twice during this stretch. The average total score of a Billikens game is just over 122 points, while the Rams prefer the speedy 94-foot version that goes up and down to the tune of 148.6 total points a contest.
Oddsmakers might be giving an indication of what they really think having the total at 128.5, definitely at more a St. Louis pace. Rhode Island sunk St. Joe’s at home Tuesday by nine points, giving them three victories in last eight games with 1-6-1 ATS record. The Rams are in the subemployment area with 2-8-1 ATS record as favorite.
Underdog Cover Chance – Not bad
Illini-wreck
The fight has come out of Illinois, losing five of six with two covers. After shooting 49 percent or better five out of six times from Jan.23 –Feb. 9, the Fighting Illini have become card caring members of the welders union having to repair broken rims since they have been clanging hoists at 38.3 percent or worse in most contests. (5 of 6) They shot 35.6 percent against today’s opponent Wisconsin only five days ago and they are 0-5 SU and ATS at neutral site locations.
The Badgers are favored by eight-points which seems a bit generous, but they are 12-4 and 9-5 ATS off a spread cover and are 5-0 ATS after scoring in 68-79 point range this year.
Underdog Cover Chance – Slim to none
Dayton chasing bid
Dayton was the preseason choice to be A-10 champions this campaign, instead it turns out they weren’t even the second best team in Ohio from the Atlantic 10. The Flyers reached the 20-win barrier with non-cover 70-60 home win against George Washington in opening round and needs more W’s to be strongly considered for NCAA bid. The players understand their task.
“We just know we have to give it our all every single night and we cannot let up," Dayton forward Kurt Huelsman said. "We're not perfect, nobody's perfect and we made mistakes. But we have to learn and move on." Dayton is just 1-6-1 ATS and faces their biggest rival Xavier.
The Musketeers have rattled off seven wins in a row and 11 of 12 (9-3 ATS) and are playing for A-10 title and NCAA seeding. Xavier has scars from last Dayton dual, being thrashed 90-65 and is listed as three-point fave. The favored squad has covered 13 of the previous 17 conflicts.
Underdog Cover Chance – Risky
Massachusetts dealing with arachnophobia
The Minutemen were the one lower seed (11th) to pull the upset in the opening round of A-10 tourney. They upset Charlotte 59-56 as nine-point road underdogs, despite shooting 32.1 percent. Next up is one the best defensive teams in the country in Richmond, who is also very efficient on offense. On the year, UMass shoots only 40.1 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from three-point range. Those figures correlate with the Spiders defensive numbers.
Massachusetts is on the receiving end of 9.5-points and is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site dog. The bright side is the Minutemen are 7-3 ATS with two days rest and has covered three previous meetings with Richmond. Unfortunately, these Spiders really get under opposing teams skin, with 10 wins in 11 tries (9-1-1 ATS) and only defeat was at Xavier by two in double overtime.
Underdog Cover Chance – I wouldn't take em'
Pacific Division Confrontation
Another late game-winner from Kobe Bryant didn’t make the Los Angeles Lakers feel much better, and their Firday night dual with Phoenix might be their last chance for a while to get a true boost of confidence. Before a very easy stretch of the schedule, the Lakers desperately want a strong all-around performance when they visit a well-rested Suns team that has been playing well. The Lakers are 2-point favorites according to Sportsbook.com.
While Phoenix (40-25, 36-28-1 ATS) has won 14 of 18 (14-4 ATS) to move into a virtual tie for fifth place in the West, Los Angeles (47-18, 27-36-2 ATS) has split its last 10 to see its lead atop the conference dwindle to 2 1/2 games over red-hot Dallas. “We need to play harder and execute a little better,” said forward Ron Artest, averaging 6.3 points on 4-of-24 shooting in the last three games. “Overall, we are not playing great.” Artest’s comment is supported by recent 2-8 spread record.
Bryant has been very critical of his team, particularly on defense, and referred to the Lakers’ most recent effort as “garbage” after a 109-107 home win over Toronto on Tuesday. It was nearly their fourth consecutive loss, but Bryant’s 17-foot fallaway with 1.9 seconds left provided the difference. “We scored a lot of points tonight, (but) that’s not going to win championships,” said Bryant, averaging 32.8 points in the last four games. “You’ve got to stop people.”
That could be tough against a Phoenix club which leads the league in 3-point shooting at 40.5 percent and with 109.5 points per game. Plus, the Suns should have fresh legs after getting the last five days off in a strange schedule quirk this late in a season.
“It’s important because we’re a little banged up,” coach Alvin Gentry told the team’s official Web site. “A lot of times it would be a bit discouraging because we’ve been playing with a good rhythm and you hate to break that up by going a full week without playing. But with us, I think it’s OK because we could use this week to get guys right.” It should be noted the Suns are 3-11 ATS with three or more days off. The Suns’ only four losses in the past six weeks were to teams among the West’s top eight.
The Lakers’ next three games after this one are against the West’s worst teams - Golden State, Sacramento and Minnesota - followed by a matchup with a last-place team from the East - Washington. “It’s giving these teams a quiet confidence where they think they can beat us,” an angry Lamar Odom said after the narrow win over Toronto. “I don’t expect that. We’ve got to take it to teams.”
Opening a three-game trip, the Lakers look to avoid losing five consecutive road games for the first time since March 4-15, 2007 and are 3-5-1 ATS as visitors since Jan. 31.
Los Angeles has lost two straight in Phoenix, giving up 118 points in each. Amare Stoudemire’s 26 points helped the Suns to a 118-103 home win Dec. 28 in the most recent meeting. “Everybody in Phoenix seems to dislike the Lakers which definitely gets us excited about playing them,” reserve Jared Dudley said. “But I think any time you’re playing one of the league’s best teams you’re going to get up for it.”
Stoudemire totaled 26 points in the previous two matchups this season and the Lakers won by a combined 39. He’s scored 30 in each of his last three games. Stoudemire and the Suns are 3-8 and 4-7 ATS against L.A. the past three years.
Another big man providing a lift is Robin Lopez, whose post presence defensively has helped Phoenix go 16-8 since he joined the starting lineup. Now Lopez tries to limit the effectiveness of Andrew Bynum, averaging 17.4 points and 10.4 rebounds in his last seven games against the Suns.
Sportsbook.com has the Lakers as two-point favorites with total of 213.5 and they are 15-6 and 9-11-1 ATS as road favorites, including being 1-6-1 ATS if the number is -4.5 or less. As expected, Phoenix has scored over 100 points in their last nine games and are 12-4 ATS after breaking the century mark. Seven of the last 11 meeting between these division rivals have gone Over the total and Los Angeles is 34-16 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Suns are 20-9 OVER after two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
This Pacific Division confrontation is available in local television markets at 9:00 Eastern with the home team having won and covered the last five contests.
StatFox Power Line – Phoenix by 4
CBB: Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Betting Preview
2010-03-05
The Missouri Valley Conference tips off its tournament on Thursday and it will be the first of the more prominent mid-major conferences to enjoy the national audience for its championship encounter, scheduled for Sunday. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State. Get the key betting info you need for today’s games as well as the rest of the conference tourney action on the GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com. Now, here’s a closer look at the MVC action.
The Favorites
Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa is the defending tourney champ and seeks its third title since 2004.
Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is the 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 SU & 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.
Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to the championship, Illinois State will have to continue to play superior defense and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.
The Long Shots
Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.
Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.
The Numbers
The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.
Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
The Outcome
In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.
The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.
CBB: Xavier at Dayton (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2010-02-09
For as much as most experts thought potentially otherwise, it is once again Xavier atop the Atlantic 10 Conference as we cruise into the first full weekend of February college hoops. In fact, back in December, it looked as if the Musketeers’ Saturday opponent, Dayton, had what it took to unseat them. The Flyers can gain some ground on the A-10 lead but it won’t be easy. Get all the info you need to make an educated wager on this game on the Sportsbook.com GAME MATCHUP page.
The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS) were not supposed to be as formidable in 2010 after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.
The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at “clutch time”, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. However, they are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.
Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as a home favorite against Xavier, although it is not certain that will be the line scenario at Sportsbook.com when the ball tips off at noon ET.
2010-12-02
Sportsbook.com using Kansas -16.5
Two legendary programs, one dynamic college basketball setting, history, tradition. That is about all that undefeated Kansas (6-0) and UCLA (3-2) will have in common when they take the court Thursday night in Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks bring a nation-best, 64-game home winning streak into play, and the Bruins will be about as welcome in Lawrence as LeBron James will be welcome Thursday night in Cleveland.
Kansas has been clicking on all cylinders, and they have yet to add top recruit Josh Selby to the rotation. The NCAA ruled recently that Selby can play beginning on December 18. So far without Selby, Kansas is shooting a Division I best 57.8% from the field. Their average margin of victory (35.3 PPG) is also tops in the nation. As a team, they are averaging 22 assists per game. The Morris brothers have been outstanding so far. Marcus Morris leads the team in scoring at 19 PPG, while brother Markieff is averaging 12.3 PPG and a team-high 9.5 RPG. Tyshawn Taylor has been stellar so far at the point, averaging a team high 7.2 APG to complement his 9.2 PPG.
After a 3-0 start, Ben Howland’s Bruins lost in the semifinals and then the consolation game of the Preseason NIT Championship in Madison Square Garden. Sophomore forward Reeves Nelson leads the Bruins in points and rebounds (17.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG), and totaled 30 points and 23 rebounds in the two losses in New York City. Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt (14.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) are both sophomores, and headline a young Bruins club that does not have a single senior on the team. The poise and discipline of this UCLA team will be sorely tested on Kansas’ home floor. The Bruins have totaled 84 assists and 81 turnovers this season. The combination of a young team that doesn’t protect the basketball, playing in a hostile road environment against an experienced team that has won 64 straight on its home floor and loves to pressure the ball looks like a bad combination for the baby bears. Normally when Kansas and UCLA play, that smell in the air is tradition. Thursday night in Lawrence, that won’t be tradition you’re whiffing, but more like the smell of a young team getting smoked.
69% of action at Sportsbook.com is betting that the Jayhawks will cover the big spread against the Bruins.
KANSAS is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS 80.3, OPPONENT 63.6 - (Rating = 3*).
Elite 8 Matchup Preview: Butler Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
2010-03-30
The No. 5 seed Butler Bulldogs (31 – 4) will be facing the No. 2 Kansas State Wildcats (29 – 7) Saturday March 27, 2010 in Salt Lake City, Utah. www.sportsbook.com has the Kansas State Wildcats as the favorites by 4 points and the over / under at 134.5 points.
The Butler Bulldogs have been overlooked since this 2010 NCAA tournament started just over a week ago, but here they are; in the Elite 8 after having tossing No. 1 seed Syracuse Orange aside on Thursday night. The Butler Bulldogs have now won 23 consecutive games, very impressive, and are moving on to the Elite 8 for the first time in the school’s history. The Butler Bulldogs held the Orangemen, which also led the nation in field goal percentage this season with .517, to only 43.8 percent shooting and limited the Orange to just 59 points in the game. The Butler Bulldogs got huge shots from Willie Veasly, the team's defensive stopper, and Gordon Hayward, who also drained all four of his free throw shots in the final seconds of the game. The Butler Bulldogs have now won 31 games by blowout wins and clutch performances down the stretch in close games to show they belong.
If you did not watch the Kansas State versus Xavier game Thursday night, you missed perhaps the most exciting game of the 2010 NCAA Tournament so far. Huge shot after shot from both teams in a up and down, two overtime classic that the Kansas State Wildcats ultimately pulled out after a Jacob Pullen three pointer with 31 seconds left in the second overtime gave the Wildcats the lead for good. Pullen and backcourt teammate Denis Clemente, who pretty much carried the team through the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, came up with another big, almost magical performance, combining to make 53 points, grab 9 rebounds, give out 8 assists and had just two turnovers in 88 minutes of play. But more importantly for Coach Frank Martin's team, however, was the play of forwards Curtis Kelly, who got 21 points, 8 boards, 4 assists and 5 blocks, giving the Kansas State Wildcats a foremost inside presence on both sides of the floor. With Clemente and Pullen creating for other teammates and draining their shots on the outside and Kelly dominating the paint, Kansas State looked like a Final Four caliber team.
The backcourt duo of Pullen and Clemente give Kansas State Wildcats a decent opportunity every night. With the two of them playing, and shooting the ball so well, Frank Martin's team is going to be tough to beat. With the spread being only 4 points, www.sportsbook.com, this will not be hard to cover. However the over / under which is at 134.5 is a little harder to predict, I’d keep away from that bet.
(7) BYU Cougars vs. (2) Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5)
2010-03-20
As expected, bookmakers are receiving heavy betting action on the favorite, 2-seed Kansas State Wildcats over the underdog, 7-seed BYU Cougars.
This corresponds with www.sportsbook.com’s betting trends, currently reporting a 68%:32% ratio in favor of Kansas State at (-4.5). Twenty-four hours ago, the betting trends reported a 92%:8% ratio in favor of Kansas State at (-4.0). We can see that bookmakers have adjusted the line a half point to reach a closer balance in bets, but still rather unbalanced.
We know the bookmakers have a process (line movement) to balance the bets in order to eliminate betting risk from the books. We believe the bookmakers’ non-balancing of bets are predominantly intentional, and an indicator of risk tolerance, and positioning. In simple terms, this tells us, the bookmakers like the Cougars’ chance of covering the spread and are comfortable exposing themselves to that risk.
With another twenty-four hours left until tip off, and the current unbalanced 68%:32% ratio, we like the underdog BYU Cougars (+4.5) pick at www.sportsbook.com.
BYU’s first round game resulted in a double overtime victory over the Florida Gators (99-92). It was their first NCAA March Madness tournament win since 1993. Cougars star shooter Jimmer Fredette hit two 3-pointers in double overtime, and finished the game with 37 points.
Fredette must have a big game in order for BYU to keep up with Kansas State. He proved he can carry the team, scoring over 30 points in eight games, including 45 points and 30 points performances in the Mountain West Tournament. Fredette and the Cougars are extremely impressive statistically, ranking third in the nation in 3-point shooting, and first in free throw shooting at 78.6%. This year, the Cougars set a Mountain West tournament record for free throws, shooting 88.9% (48 of 54).
In addition to his scoring responsibilities, Fredette and company will be challenged by Kansas State’s two speedy guards, Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. The two Kansas State guards average a combined 35 points per game, and run transition ball as good as any team tandem in the nation. In their first round game against North Texas, Pullen and Clemente combined for 32 points, but even more impressive, committed only two turnovers in the (82-62) victory.
Kansas State coach Frank Martin will definitely review the BYU vs. Florida film and recognize the trouble BYU had keeping step with Florida’s quick guard Kenny Boynton late in the game. Expect Coach Martin to be aggressive with Pullen and Clemente, designing a game plan to capitalize on their speed and BYU’s lack of speed.
We believe the X-factor in this game will be free throws. BYU leads the nation in free throw shooting at 78.6%, and should be effective at the line. On the other hand, Kansas State shoots less than 67% from the line, a huge disadvantage when the end of the game comes down to fouls and free throws, especially against a spread. This ‘Free Throws’ X-factor gives BYU an edge in terms of covering the spread.
We are not counting on an outright victory, just a covering of the spread by BYU. We like aligning our picks with the bookmakers and we like the underdog.
On www.sportsbook.com, the pick is BYU (+4.5).
CBB: Early Dog Hunting
2010-03-12
A handful of games had early lines for Friday, with the matchups already predetermined. Here is a look at the chances of those dogs that were assigned early numbers, attempting to figure out if they can cover or win outright. Get the latest odds on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
St. Bonaventure’s needs your prayers
The Bonnies won their opening A-10 tourney game 83-71 over DuQuesne as a one-point favorite. After torching the nets early in the season, conference play slowed down St. Bonaventure’s. However, recently the team has regained their shooting eye, converting on 49.2 percent or more in their last four outings. The Bonnies are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS in last six contests; unfortunately they will be up against Temple defense that allows 56.8 points per game and 38.1 percent.
The Owls have won seven straight and nine or 10, with only loss at highly respected Richmond. Temple has won and covered last nine meetings by an average of 19.2 per game. Sportsbook.com has the Owls sitting as 10-point favorites and they are 6-0 ATS as neutral site favorites for this high noon start.
Underdog Cover Chance – Slim
Contrast in style
St. Louis is the higher seed at four; nevertheless, they are the underdog to Rhode Island by three-points. Oddmakers tip their hat to coach Rick Majerus, but are not convinced the Billikens 8-2 SU and ATS close to the season is for real. Ignorance is bliss for St. Louis, since they perfectly suited for this moment, having only been favored twice during this stretch. The average total score of a Billikens game is just over 122 points, while the Rams prefer the speedy 94-foot version that goes up and down to the tune of 148.6 total points a contest.
Oddsmakers might be giving an indication of what they really think having the total at 128.5, definitely at more a St. Louis pace. Rhode Island sunk St. Joe’s at home Tuesday by nine points, giving them three victories in last eight games with 1-6-1 ATS record. The Rams are in the subemployment area with 2-8-1 ATS record as favorite.
Underdog Cover Chance – Not bad
Illini-wreck
The fight has come out of Illinois, losing five of six with two covers. After shooting 49 percent or better five out of six times from Jan.23 –Feb. 9, the Fighting Illini have become card caring members of the welders union having to repair broken rims since they have been clanging hoists at 38.3 percent or worse in most contests. (5 of 6) They shot 35.6 percent against today’s opponent Wisconsin only five days ago and they are 0-5 SU and ATS at neutral site locations.
The Badgers are favored by eight-points which seems a bit generous, but they are 12-4 and 9-5 ATS off a spread cover and are 5-0 ATS after scoring in 68-79 point range this year.
Underdog Cover Chance – Slim to none
Dayton chasing bid
Dayton was the preseason choice to be A-10 champions this campaign, instead it turns out they weren’t even the second best team in Ohio from the Atlantic 10. The Flyers reached the 20-win barrier with non-cover 70-60 home win against George Washington in opening round and needs more W’s to be strongly considered for NCAA bid. The players understand their task.
“We just know we have to give it our all every single night and we cannot let up," Dayton forward Kurt Huelsman said. "We're not perfect, nobody's perfect and we made mistakes. But we have to learn and move on." Dayton is just 1-6-1 ATS and faces their biggest rival Xavier.
The Musketeers have rattled off seven wins in a row and 11 of 12 (9-3 ATS) and are playing for A-10 title and NCAA seeding. Xavier has scars from last Dayton dual, being thrashed 90-65 and is listed as three-point fave. The favored squad has covered 13 of the previous 17 conflicts.
Underdog Cover Chance – Risky
Massachusetts dealing with arachnophobia
The Minutemen were the one lower seed (11th) to pull the upset in the opening round of A-10 tourney. They upset Charlotte 59-56 as nine-point road underdogs, despite shooting 32.1 percent. Next up is one the best defensive teams in the country in Richmond, who is also very efficient on offense. On the year, UMass shoots only 40.1 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from three-point range. Those figures correlate with the Spiders defensive numbers.
Massachusetts is on the receiving end of 9.5-points and is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site dog. The bright side is the Minutemen are 7-3 ATS with two days rest and has covered three previous meetings with Richmond. Unfortunately, these Spiders really get under opposing teams skin, with 10 wins in 11 tries (9-1-1 ATS) and only defeat was at Xavier by two in double overtime.
Underdog Cover Chance – I wouldn't take em'
Pacific Division Confrontation
Another late game-winner from Kobe Bryant didn’t make the Los Angeles Lakers feel much better, and their Firday night dual with Phoenix might be their last chance for a while to get a true boost of confidence. Before a very easy stretch of the schedule, the Lakers desperately want a strong all-around performance when they visit a well-rested Suns team that has been playing well. The Lakers are 2-point favorites according to Sportsbook.com.
While Phoenix (40-25, 36-28-1 ATS) has won 14 of 18 (14-4 ATS) to move into a virtual tie for fifth place in the West, Los Angeles (47-18, 27-36-2 ATS) has split its last 10 to see its lead atop the conference dwindle to 2 1/2 games over red-hot Dallas. “We need to play harder and execute a little better,” said forward Ron Artest, averaging 6.3 points on 4-of-24 shooting in the last three games. “Overall, we are not playing great.” Artest’s comment is supported by recent 2-8 spread record.
Bryant has been very critical of his team, particularly on defense, and referred to the Lakers’ most recent effort as “garbage” after a 109-107 home win over Toronto on Tuesday. It was nearly their fourth consecutive loss, but Bryant’s 17-foot fallaway with 1.9 seconds left provided the difference. “We scored a lot of points tonight, (but) that’s not going to win championships,” said Bryant, averaging 32.8 points in the last four games. “You’ve got to stop people.”
That could be tough against a Phoenix club which leads the league in 3-point shooting at 40.5 percent and with 109.5 points per game. Plus, the Suns should have fresh legs after getting the last five days off in a strange schedule quirk this late in a season.
“It’s important because we’re a little banged up,” coach Alvin Gentry told the team’s official Web site. “A lot of times it would be a bit discouraging because we’ve been playing with a good rhythm and you hate to break that up by going a full week without playing. But with us, I think it’s OK because we could use this week to get guys right.” It should be noted the Suns are 3-11 ATS with three or more days off. The Suns’ only four losses in the past six weeks were to teams among the West’s top eight.
The Lakers’ next three games after this one are against the West’s worst teams - Golden State, Sacramento and Minnesota - followed by a matchup with a last-place team from the East - Washington. “It’s giving these teams a quiet confidence where they think they can beat us,” an angry Lamar Odom said after the narrow win over Toronto. “I don’t expect that. We’ve got to take it to teams.”
Opening a three-game trip, the Lakers look to avoid losing five consecutive road games for the first time since March 4-15, 2007 and are 3-5-1 ATS as visitors since Jan. 31.
Los Angeles has lost two straight in Phoenix, giving up 118 points in each. Amare Stoudemire’s 26 points helped the Suns to a 118-103 home win Dec. 28 in the most recent meeting. “Everybody in Phoenix seems to dislike the Lakers which definitely gets us excited about playing them,” reserve Jared Dudley said. “But I think any time you’re playing one of the league’s best teams you’re going to get up for it.”
Stoudemire totaled 26 points in the previous two matchups this season and the Lakers won by a combined 39. He’s scored 30 in each of his last three games. Stoudemire and the Suns are 3-8 and 4-7 ATS against L.A. the past three years.
Another big man providing a lift is Robin Lopez, whose post presence defensively has helped Phoenix go 16-8 since he joined the starting lineup. Now Lopez tries to limit the effectiveness of Andrew Bynum, averaging 17.4 points and 10.4 rebounds in his last seven games against the Suns.
Sportsbook.com has the Lakers as two-point favorites with total of 213.5 and they are 15-6 and 9-11-1 ATS as road favorites, including being 1-6-1 ATS if the number is -4.5 or less. As expected, Phoenix has scored over 100 points in their last nine games and are 12-4 ATS after breaking the century mark. Seven of the last 11 meeting between these division rivals have gone Over the total and Los Angeles is 34-16 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Suns are 20-9 OVER after two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last two seasons.
This Pacific Division confrontation is available in local television markets at 9:00 Eastern with the home team having won and covered the last five contests.
StatFox Power Line – Phoenix by 4
CBB: Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Betting Preview
2010-03-05
The Missouri Valley Conference tips off its tournament on Thursday and it will be the first of the more prominent mid-major conferences to enjoy the national audience for its championship encounter, scheduled for Sunday. Three teams seem head and shoulders above the rest for the 20th edition of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and they are Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Illinois State. Get the key betting info you need for today’s games as well as the rest of the conference tourney action on the GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com. Now, here’s a closer look at the MVC action.
The Favorites
Northern Iowa (25-4) is the regular season champion and has been one of the better wagers in college basketball all season at 18-10 ATS. The Panthers have been hanging around the bottom portions of the Top 25 since January and are destined to be in the Big Dance, leaving those to wonder about mindset and the possibility of an upset. Northern Iowa is the defending tourney champ and seeks its third title since 2004.
Historically, second-seeded Wichita State (23-8, 11-13 ATS) has not played well in this event, carrying a 21-28 record. The Shockers are at least statistically as good if not better than Northern Iowa. Wichita State is tops in The Valley in scoring margin (+8.7), rebounding margin (+4.8), assists (14.6) and steals (7.2). A concern about the Shockers is the 1-6 ATS record since Feb. 3 and 6-8 SU & 5-8 ATS record away from Wichita.
Illinois State (21-9, 12-14-1 ATS) has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in the tournament, having been to the championship game three straight times. The Redbirds have won six of their last seven games, losing only at Northern Iowa in last outing. In order to return to the championship, Illinois State will have to continue to play superior defense and receive big contributions from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.
The Long Shots
Fourth seeded Creighton (16-14, 12-15 ATS) has won this event a record 10 times, but doesn’t look they have what it takes this season, particularly with 3-12 SU road record. The Blue Jays will take on Bradley (15-14, 13-15 ATS) in quarterfinal matchup that is already determined and the Braves are in double revenge and are 9-5 SU and ATS with three or more days rest.
Drake, Southern Illinois, Missouri State (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) and Evansville will play the first day in St. Louis. Of this group, the Bears have the best shot of making the semifinals or beyond. Missouri State has made the finals four times since 2001, finishing second each time. They are the top scoring team in the league at 71.9 points per game and convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.
The Numbers
The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 SU and profitable 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
Large FAVORITES or those laying seven-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.
Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
The Outcome
In the top half of the bracket, Northern Iowa faces Bradley in the semi-finals, who pull the minor upset of Creighton. The Braves have split two games with the Panthers, covering each time and are nipped in the rubber game. Missouri State shocks Wichita State in the quarters and falls to Illinois State who limits their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale.
The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon and will not a thrill a minute spectacular, with the projected total in the low 120’s. Illinois State will provide strong competition and play even or close most of the way, until Northern Iowa’s veteran experience takes over in the last five minutes and closes the deal, giving them two straight Arch Madness crowns.
CBB: Xavier at Dayton (12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2010-02-09
For as much as most experts thought potentially otherwise, it is once again Xavier atop the Atlantic 10 Conference as we cruise into the first full weekend of February college hoops. In fact, back in December, it looked as if the Musketeers’ Saturday opponent, Dayton, had what it took to unseat them. The Flyers can gain some ground on the A-10 lead but it won’t be easy. Get all the info you need to make an educated wager on this game on the Sportsbook.com GAME MATCHUP page.
The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS) were not supposed to be as formidable in 2010 after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.
The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at “clutch time”, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. However, they are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.
Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as a home favorite against Xavier, although it is not certain that will be the line scenario at Sportsbook.com when the ball tips off at noon ET.