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Final Four Preview: No. 5 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
2010-04-05

The Michigan State Spartans are back in the Final Four for the second consecutive season, also for the 6th time in 12 years! In addition to the game clinching free throws, Morgan had his 6th double double of the basketball season, scoring 13 points and pulling down a 10 boards against a the Tennessee Vols who refused to go away peacefully. Junior Durrell Summers led scorers with 21 points on 8 of 10 shooting and his avg. is 22.5 ppg in the 2010 NCAA Tourney, almost 12 points more than his season average. The Michigan State Spartans have won two games in the absence of point guard Kalin Lucas as Summers, Draymond Green and Korie Lucious have picked up the scoring with the team's leading scorer out.

The MSU Spartans are the only team left in the tournament with experience at this level. They did it last year, and a big part of this team's contributors played lots of minutes the team last year. Coach Izzo has a March legacy, and he's lost just three times in the second game of NCAA Tournament weekends in his career. This means, if he gets to the championship game, he won’t be easy to beat. Durrell Summers, Korie Lucious and Draymond Green join Morgan in playing the best basketball of their careers. MSU could be the most athletic team left.

The Butler Bulldogs and the Michigan State Spartans are at opposite ends of the world in terms of experience in playing in this tournament, as the Bulldogs are making the first Final Four appearance in school history after beating Kansas State on Saturday 63 – 56. The Butler Bulldogs, who have now won an impressive 24 straight games, are allowing a only 56.5 ppg in the tourney and haven't allowed to team to score 60 or more points in a game since Feb. 26, 2010. The Bulldogs defense is led by guard Willie Veasley, the Horizon League Defensive Player of the Year, who, with the help of Ronald Nored, held Kansas State's backcourt duo of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen scoreless for almost 30 minutes. It’s not all hype this Butler Bulldogs team can play.

Now to the important section of this article the college basketball betting picks. www.sportsbook.com has Butler favorites by 1.5 points with the over / under at 126.

The Michigan State Spartans are 27 - 8 money line and 14 - 20 ATS. The Butler Bulldogs are 32 - 4 money line and 16 - 20 ATS. When they have played common teams, the MSU Spartans are 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are 4-1 outright, but just 2-3 ATS.

The Spartans averages 72.5 ppg against teams normally allowing 66 points. This is on 47.2 percent shooting to teams that usually only permit just 42.4 percent.
The stats for the Big 10 schools are even more staggering on the defensive end. They allow only 64 points per game against teams that normally get only 69.4 points, which makes them a 40.6 percent shooting team when they are usually a 44.2 percent shooting team.

Butler scores 69.4 ppg against teams that score about 66.7 on 45 percent shooting versus 42.9 percent. They are not slugs on defense either, they only allow 59.6 points per game where teams usually shoot at 44.6 percent.

Michigan State is 25-10 in the NCAA Tournament ATS all time. Butler is 43-21 outside the conference ATS. If we look at over / under trends the Spartans have gone over 8 - 0 against the Horizon League, but under 30-12 when they are underdogs. All key points for college basketball bettors to keep an eye on.

I predict that the Spartans will beat out the Bulldogs, Izzo will get his team ready and I think the bright lights and big atmosphere will be too much for Butler. MSU +1.5

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CBB: Final Four Betting Outlook
2010-03-31

The last time this many low seeds made it to the Final Four was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting. It sets up what most believe is a wide-open mini tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend. Let's take a look at each teams championship odds according to Sportsbook.com, and their chances of cutting the nets down on Monday night.  

Butler (+350 to win national championship at Sportsbook.com)

Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.

In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.

Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.

Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.

Michigan State (+450)

In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.

Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.

The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.

West Virginia (+225)

It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.

This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.

West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.

The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.

Duke (+120)

On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.

This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.

Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.

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Play On home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days’ rest.
2010-03-31

In the last five years, this sweltering system is 27-6 ATS, 81.8 percent and it has been even sharper in the past three seasons at 18-3 against the spread. The outcomes generally have been more comfortable than a Therapeutic Bed, with the home town team winning by 9.6 points per game.

Take a moment or two to review today’s top betting system. 

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NBA & Final Four pieces - pictures of Celtics C Kevin Garnett and West Virginia's Desean Butler attached
2010-03-31

NBA: Aging Boston in therapeutic system

For over two and half months, the Boston Celtics had listened to how old they have gotten, with  a 17-19 record since Christmas Day and crushing backers with an even worse 12-22-2 ATS mark in the same time span. Critics of the team thought Boston should replace the Gatorade bottles with Geritol to get more iron and minerals into this aging group.  Lately though, things have turned around, and the Celtics would like to keep the positive momentum going in a home dual with Oklahoma City. The hosts are a 3.5-point favorite according to Sportsbook.com.  

On March 15, Boston (47-26) had apparently had enough of this “old men” talk and started playing basketball as most had expected from them, winning six of seven and covering five times. Doc Rivers club was in a position to make a statement that they indeed were turning the corner, hosting a sizzling San Antonio squad at home as 3.5-point favorites this past Sunday.

Instead, the Celtics were lamentable, missing 13 of 14 three-point shot heaves, shooting 37 percent for the game, on the way to a season low in scoring of 73 points in 21-point thrashing. Even post-game comments were not about to change people’s perception that this Boston team was turning into the USS Constitution (known as ‘Old Ironsides’), which is stationed in the nearby harbor.

“This does not change our progress,” said 13-year veteran Ray Allen unconvincingly. “You trip up a little here, but it doesn’t change the mission we’re on or the direction we’re heading.”

The Celtics have had over 69 hours to think about Spurs debacle and get ready for one of the young and up and coming teams in the NBA, Oklahoma City (45-28). The Thunder is in sixth place in the Western Conference, led by Kevin Durant and a host of several exciting and skilled players all under 25 years of age. Oklahoma City has been one of finest bets in the NBA all season, ranked third at 43-30 ATS.

Boston on the other hand is play against material, ranked 29th at 30-41-2 ATS, due to an incredibly poor home record of 11-24-1 ATS.

Can the C’s turn it around quickly? Sportsbook.com oddsmakers have made Boston 3.5-point favorites, even with Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins listed as questionable and today’s super situation gives them more than fighting chance.

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